Bitcoin Price Chart Since 2009 September 2020

[Question] Is there an app or a chart that shows how long price of a bitcoin has been above a certain value? (example: Price of bitcoin has been above $800 for a total of X days since 2009)

submitted by mrtest001 to btc [link] [comments]

[Question] Is there an app or a chart that shows how long price of a bitcoin has been above a certain value? (example: Price of bitcoin has been above $800 for a total of X days since 2009) /r/btc

[Question] Is there an app or a chart that shows how long price of a bitcoin has been above a certain value? (example: Price of bitcoin has been above $800 for a total of X days since 2009) /btc submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

What I see when I see a student with ADHD

I have ADHD.
I was diagnosed at age 12. What happened is I got to middle school, and my life fell apart. It came on like a typhoon. Things seemed alright as I started, but I still remember that October when my family went to sixth-grade check-in.
My twin sister went first. The meeting lasted about four minutes. She and my parents left with smiles all around and talk of getting In N Out on the way home. Then it was my turn.
Every teacher I had stood in a circle. They seemed...different. One by one, they went around and told me that I was shit. Some were nicer than others, but everyone had the same message to convey:
Doesn't complete his homework all the way
Distracts others trying to learn
Unable to follow along in class
Not sure if he can keep up
I then heard my grades: C-, D+, C+, A in PE, C, and an F in Social Studies.
I don't remember being ashamed or embarrassed or anything. I remember being confused. I had gone to school every day and tried hard and thought I was doing what the teacher asked. Nope. Guess I wasn't.
Nobody had much advice for me. They just wanted me to know that I sucked. And that my parents should understand so. I don't know if my parents freaked out or punished me or what. But they weren't happy.
The last to go was my social studies teacher, Sven.
He asked me if I knew how to read.
I politely nodded my head.
But he wasn't sure. He talked about all the symptoms he had seen from me. To counter, I pulled a grad-level book on the Cold War off a shelf and read a page aloud while trying not to cry. People were even more confused.
Some estimate that a child with ADHD will receive 20,000 more negative comments before the age of 12 than a non-ADHD child will. I can't speak to that exactly, but I can say that this was not the only time I've had a room full of people upset with me for reasons I never saw coming. It doesn't get much easier.
Sven caught up to us as we walked to the car. He was cagey with his reasoning, but he told us that there might be something up with my brain. He recommended I get tested by a psychiatrist and see what she had to say. I've since come to my conclusions where he got such an idea.
The testing was fun. I've always liked tests. Didn't mention it, but they also thought I couldn't read in 2nd grade. Lol. That one went away after I took a standardized exam and scored in the 99th percentile of the nation in reading. I thought standardized tests were fun, you see.
I moved a bunch of colored balls into colored holes and tried to remember what color things were after 10 minutes and everything else you might expect. I didn't know what I was even doing, but I felt I could hang.
Three weeks later, I got my results. The only part I remember is that my psychiatrist noted that in her entire career, she had never met someone who scored higher on specific tasks and yet lower on others. My chart looked like OJ Simpson’s polygraph.
I could keep going, and in another article, I will. But this is how I got diagnosed. And the key to all of it was Sven. Everything makes perfect sense after the fact, but only when you realize that a single teacher served as the link that completes the narrative. I do not know where I am today without him.
I got lucky that this story takes place in 2003, and at a private school with teachers who genuinely cared about me. For reasons a lawyer in the comments needs to help me understand better, public school teachers seem loath to alert students of disabilities of any kind. This includes ADHD but also things like autism, dyslexia, and mood disorders. Things that seem apparent to me in a way that makes it seem impossible that no other teacher in the past 13 years hasn’t also picked up on them.
That means many students go through primary schooling while having no idea they have a problem at all. When I mention to a student they might have ADHD, they are first confused, but then some memories come back. The first is that someone, usually a sports or music coach, had once told them the same thing. The other is that they remember a lot of teachers saying weird stuff they didn't understand at the time. Stuff like, "You’re so talented. I just wish you could be better focused. Have you talked to anyone about why you could be having trouble?" To me, those sound like hints from a teacher who has been told by her bosses not to put the school at risk.
I am not a teacher. I'm a private consultant and can pretty much say whatever I want. I am also not a doctor - people would die - but I am a concerned adult who has taken courses in spotting learning disabilities. I'm also someone who will do absolutely anything to make sure his students have the best chance for success now and in the future. I'm also someone who asked both my ADHD-psychiatrist (hi!) and ADHD-therapist (hi!!!!!) if I had the right to tell students if I suspected something; they both went, Ya, dude. Totally.
So I try to be Sven. I try to pay attention to what my students do and say and provide feedback that can help them. I'd like to note what that feedback is here to make sure people don't miss it because my pieces go on for way too long.
If you are a high school student who suspects he or she has ADHD, your best course of action is to talk with your parents and look into being tested by a professional psychiatrist who specializes in the topic. These tests are expensive, and mental health insurance in America sucks balls. But this is the fastest, most straightforward route to getting the help you need.
Option two is to try and work with/through your public high school to get them to pay for it. This site has some good info. My guess is that this method will suck. Public schools don't have a lot of funding and will not want to spend it on you. That's not your problem. You will almost certainly need your parents to back you up on this one and sit through a lot of boring meetings. I assume a lot of people will tell you a lot of reasons why they can't help you. Your response every time should be some version of, "Sure. But I need help with this. And I'm not going to stop until I get the support I need. So what do I do from here?" Then you blankly stare at them and refuse to leave until they get you at least to the next step. I'm not sure how well this will work. If you do attempt or have attempted this method, please DM me or contact my Email with your experience. I want to know if this is even worth my student's time.
If you can not afford traditional testing or do not feel your parents would support such testing, your best option is to wait until the day you turn 18 and then register for a telehealth company specializing in ADHD. The one I use and recommend is HelloAhead.com. They're neat. They do not take traditional insurance, but their rates are much lower than most doctors. They are cheap enough that I feel an average 18-year old who wants help could find a way to afford it on his or her own. The downside with these sites is the waiting times can be long. Took me like five months. Other such sites are popping up, and while I can't vouch for them, they all seem to offer a similar service.
Those paragraphs are what I want every student here to know. I'm much more comfortable having a trained doctor tell you what the deal is than I am trying to do it myself.
But I have to see something if I want to be Sven. The question then is, how do I see it? For spotting ADHD, it's shockingly simple. And I'll get to the real reason at the end. But for now, here is what I see when I see a student with ADHD.
The best way I can describe their lives is "endless chaos"
The chaos isn't always bad! Rarely it's fun chaos, but often it's just chaos chaos. This chaos exists in both physical and mental forms.
Physical: Their shit is such a mess. Everything. Most of the work we do is digital, so I see the Google Doc version of their mind. Folders make no sense. Things are labeled inaccurately or not at all. Schools get combined, or separated, or forgotten altogether. It is not a single type of error, but instead a collection of small mistakes and poor decisions that make the work impossible to corral. I have some kids that are messy or lazy, but this is different. It's like if the original folder system I built for them was an amoeba in a petri dish. Leave that dish out for a weekend and come back. The patterns will be remarkably similar to the organizational gore that they then try to utilize.
Mental: There's always a story. "I was late because my car has a flat tire, and the guy was late, so I had to take an Uber." "I didn't know my music essays were due a month early because the form only mentioned there being a recital." "My friend is mad at me, but it's only because she didn't tell me we were the first group presenting, so I spent more time preparing our project".
These stories make sense at first. But after a few weeks, they start to pile up. Then I become the one hearing a story about why they didn't do what I wanted, and I stop being so forgiving.
ADHD is a neurological disorder. Not a mental illness. It's closer to diabetes than it is bi-polar. "ADHD" is a fairly garbage name for the condition because A) it has a stigma, and B) it isn't even accurate. Both attention deficit and hyperactivity are symptoms of ADHD, but they are not the problem itself. It would be like calling clinical depression "low energy and excessive guilt disorder". ADHD is actually an issue involving improper dopamine regulation in the brain combined with under-activity of the brain's executive function component.
The executive function center is the part of your brain that is in charge of making sure all the other parts of your brain play nice and communicate. When the executive function center breaks down...those other parts don't. The result is a failure to plan or coordinate + a need for impulsive stimulation, thus resulting in endless chaos.
This is what I’ll ask you if you DM me, btw. Is your life endless chaos? Sometimes do you like the chaos? Sometimes do you get bored and create the chaos yourself just to see what might happen? But when that chaos stops being so fun, can you make it stop?
They're very, very intelligent
You've probably heard about the "gifted ADHD genius" thing before. I don't think it exists.
My theory has always been that the "gifted ADHD child" is a victim of survivorship bias.
The research states that ADHD has either no or a negative correlation with intelligence.
There is also a startling overlap with ADHD and incarceration.
This means that students who still manage to succeed despite their disorder tend to have advantages that keep them in the game. Namely that they're smart as hell. The other saving grace is that they come from secure support networks that prevent them from unraveling completely. I've heard from such students that their mom or dad works tirelessly to keep their life in order and to make sure they're getting things done. I do not think it is a coincidence that when ADHD students leave for college, things often fall apart.
The fact that there are ADHD kids that others know and still like makes some think ADHD isn't so bad or comes with natural cognitive advantages. Those same people do not become friends with the ADHD dumb kids who would disprove those perceptions. Do you remember that kid in elementary school who was his own worst enemy? He never had friends, and everyone was kind of afraid to even talk with him? He was kind of a bully but mostly just awful? He invited you to his house one time, but your mom wouldn’t let you go? That is my best guess of what a dumb kid with ADHD is like. It sounds cold writing it, but you know which kid I'm talking about right now. Where do you think that kid is today?
I end up with the smart ones—the ones with parents who care. And God damn are these kids smart. They're brilliant, and funny, and likable, and charming. They have something different about them that makes them undeniable. And it's not just me. I worry I play them up too much in my mind, but then I chat with a teacher or coach of theirs. It's always the same thing: Oh, she's brilliant. She can be so frustrating sometimes, tho.
They can be so frustrating sometimes, tho
The word is frustrating. Now bad. Not nasty. Not unlikeable. Frustrating.
I have some students I just don't like that much (no, not you). What tends to be the common theme with them is that they don't have much interest in my help and display a work ethic to match. On the other spectrum are the world beaters (totally you). These kids kick ass and not only follow my advice but often take that advice to the next level in ways that awe and inspire me.
And then there are the kids I think have ADHD. They don't do stuff all the time. They don't finish an essay, or they forget to spell check like I asked, or they write about something that has nothing to do with the outline we built the week before. That's not necessarily the frustrating part. You kids are 17; you make mistakes. Early on, I try to spot these mistakes and point them out. Even the students who don't like me seem to get my point after enough prodding and the problem goes away.
With these kids, the problem does not go away. Or if it does, another problem pops right back up to replace it. It makes me feel like there's nothing I can do. It would be easier if the student was just a brat. Then I could either become a brat myself or mentally check out because "hey man, your future”.
I need a name for kids I suspect have ADHD…"MaybeHD"?
Ya. That’s super funny. Say it out loud and try not to laugh.
But these MaybeHD kids do like me. And they do want to get into school. And they do feel bad when I get upset with them. I end up in long, drawn-out conversations with them about why this is important and why they need to make specific work a priority to get into the schools they want to go to. Then they nod meekly and head home. Then they come back next week, and it's the same story.
Frustrating.
They are randomly awesome at the weirdest things
I love weird talents. Things that no one offers up immediately, but then you're chatting, and it comes up naturally. "Oh ya, I love animals! I raise baby pigs in my backyard!"
"You do?"
"Ya!"
At some point, the MaybeHD kid read something or watched a Youtube video that he or she liked. Then they wanted to try it. Six months later, they're making 4k a month selling custom bathrobes on Etsy. There's rarely any logic.
"Do you like baths? Or making clothing?
"Not really. I just thought it looked fun, so I bought a sewing kit and started making things."
There is a noted link between ADHD and entrepreneurship. I see it with my MaybeHD students. They have an insatiable drive and passion for following up on curiosities that other students don't possess. Passion is the wrong word. They have obsessions with mastering concepts in a way that feels beyond their control. The obsession itself drives them to be great.
The literature on the subject is cloudy. But there exists a term in ADHD circles called "Hyperfocus". If you know what "flow" is, it's kind of like that. Only more intense and less controllable. I often see the remnants of past hyperfocuses in their stories. They used to run that pig farm. They used to sell bathrobes. They used to be really into getting good grades at school. But then one day, just as quickly as they picked the skill up, they dropped it. They can seldom tell me why.
Their priorities are completely out of whack
The downside of hyperfocus is that it can be so all-encompassing that other priorities fall by the wayside. One of my favorite students ever is named Elleway. We chatted in our first meeting, and I was instantly intrigued by her background. She said she had designed and prototyped a unit that would automatically roll under parked electric cars for hands-free charging. I hear a lot of impressive stuff in my job, and a lot of it ends up being not that impressive. But then Elleway showed me the prototype video she made back when she was a high school freshman and it blew my mind.
https://youtu.be/Y5Ap2uMbWL4
Can you do that? I sure as hell can't. She wasn't even an engineer. She calmly explained that she had partnered with several older male engineers who had helped turn her idea into reality. Then she had done all the promotional and marketing work herself. Then she got second out of 300 students at a young entrepreneur contest held at Columbia University. Shortly after, a tech CEO came up to her and asked if she would like to work with him to file a patent for the invention. She agreed and is now a trademark holder.
That was all in our first 10 minutes. She then went on to share the half dozen corporations she had worked for. And the three businesses she started. And the graphic design work she made for her website. She told me how she was a Nationally ranked fencer until she lost interest. She was now merely a Nationally ranked golfer.
Then I saw she had a 2.9 GPA and thus zero shot at getting into NYU like she hoped.
I did not initially think Elleway had ADHD. I thought she was a pathological liar. It seemed impossible to me that this same girl who had already taken a grip on the world was then unable to keep up her grades in math. That just isn’t how any -any- of my other ultra high-achieving students behave. Then Elleway showed me pictures of her casually hanging out with Andrew Yang. And then her LinkedIn With a lot of people who do not accept your request unless they want to. I had to figure out what the hell led to all this.
Elleway’s patent and ambition to work on it had taken up all her time. She was so singularly focused on doing what she cared about that the world behind her didn't seem to exist. She was hyperfocused on a goal, but once she reached it, she woke up to a reality that punished her for ignoring everything else.
That's the longing writer's version of the story. The more popular one is that she didn't give a shit about school, was warned repeatedly about the consequences, and ignored them. She got what she deserved. That’s the version the rest of the world had for her.
It goes back to frustrating. I've gotten kids into NYU that don't show a fifth the potential that Elleway did. Those kids went to all the camps their parents paid for and entered competitions with a tech doorbell or something lame, and they're just fine. But MaybeHD students are often world-beaters in ways that make them seem so special. They talk endlessly not just about what they're into but how they figured it all out and why it is all so important to them. I believe them, and I want to fight for them. So I give them as much assistance as I possibly can. But then they don't do the increasingly easy tasks I ask for them to complete. Then they suffer the consequences.
Elleway didn't get into NYU. She didn't get in much of anywhere. It eats me up inside, and I feel like I failed her. I don't know how many other people in my position would feel the same way. That's why I have to be Sven.
This is getting long, and I'm getting depressed. Here's the TL: DR of what I see when I see a student with ADHD
...
Me. I see me. And it can hurt really bad knowing what a condition like ADHD does to a young person's life.
My life is endless chaos. I've been out of food for nine days. My house looks like Badger from Breaking Bad bought a loft in Palo Alto. I am still writing this at 3:25 AM when I have to be up for work at nine. My cat has started doing this thing where she sleeps in her food bowl when it gets empty. It's equal parts adorable and humiliating.
I'm smart as shit. I know it. I made up half-ideas. That article is absolute fire. I got published on Cracked.com five times in 2011 when that meant something. I went to Tulane on a half-ride merit scholarship, used to win creative writing contests, and have done a bunch of other writery stuff that made people stand up and go, "Woah".
But I only made it to college because my mom carried me there, kicking and screaming. She packaged my life together, and I held on for the ride. Then I got to school and made it two months before she got an Email alerting her that Tulane was planning to revoke the remaining $70,000 of my $80,000 scholarship due to my grades. I barely scraped by and survived. But the shame and frustration in her voice when she read me that letter over the phone haunts me to this day.
I analyze handwriting. And I turned a Reddit account into a successful business in four months. And I collect college T-shirts from schools my students go to. And I own Bitcoin I bought in 2011 for $4.50 each. And I'm teaching myself piano with a video game. And I'm exercising with a video game. And I'm ranked 42nd in Northern California at Super Smash Bros Ultimate. And I’ve tried the nachos at over 100 Taquerias in the Bay Area. And I own a really cute cat.
But I've spent 15* hours this week writing this instead of a sequel to that Costco piece. I have one coming where I edit my Common App essay from 2009. It's a great idea and a great article. One that will drive significantly more business to my site than this piece will. Hell, I predict this piece is likely to lose me business because I come off like a mess in it. But it's what I want to write, so I feel like I have no choice.
*The 15 hours is a guess. I have no idea how long it takes me to write and edit these things. I start typing and X hours later look up and realize how hungry I am and how much I need to pee. The writing controls me.
I see myself in my MaybeHD students. I see their unfettered curiosity and flair for taking as much good from the world as possible. I see their infectious enthusiasm and ability to quickly forgive others because they know too well how it feels to want forgiveness themselves.
Yet I also see their inattention to detail, their weak excuses, and their general confusion that makes me realize they couldn't fix some problems if their lives depended on it. I see their sadness and shame when those mistakes pile up. I see when the chaos stops being fun, and they want out, but they don't know how. I don't know what I, as their consultant, can do. But as Sven, I can recommend they go talk to someone else...
Hey, so, I was considering hiring you and all...but you seem kind of bad. Why should I trust you?
Because a couple of years ago, I got back on my medication and turned my life around. You aren't reading this if I don't reach out for help and trust a trained psychiatrist to guide me. There are no groups of friends in Delaware or Connecticut comparing their half-ideas lists. There sure as shit isn't a CollegeWithMattie.com.
I still have ADHD. But one of the greatest things about ADHD is that it is -without rival- the most treatable form of mental illness or dysfunction known to man. It is not curable, but there are endless medical and non-medical options available for those willing to reach out and get the help they need. My story is that it was only by getting re-medicated that I then could learn and use coping mechanisms that allow me to achieve the type of life I've always wanted.
Christ, 4,400 words. You know, I'm also submitting this for a class I'm in. That's why all the backlinks are to actual sources instead of links herding you into my website. Hi Amy! That's one more thing. ADHD people are hyper-efficient...Kind of.
Alright. If you're still here reading this, you might be suspecting some things about yourself. My DMs are open if you want to chat, but again, I am not a doctor. I will say that right now, as you prepare to head to college, is a really good time to get this all figured out. College is a giant reset button on your life. Figure these problems out now so that by the time you head off for your next chapter, you will have given yourself the best possible chance to succeed.
Endless chaos.
Here is the bold part again:
If you are a student in high school who suspects he or she has ADHD, your best course of action is to talk with your parents and look into being tested by a professional psychiatrist who specializes in the topic. These tests are expensive, and mental health insurance in America (still) sucks balls. But this is the fastest, most straightforward route to getting the help you need.
Option two is to try and work with/through your public high school to get them to pay for it. This site has some good info. My guess is that this method will kind of suck. Public schools don't have a lot of funding and will not want to spend it on you. That's not your problem. You will almost certainly need your parents to back you up on this one and sit through a lot of boring meetings. I assume a lot of people will tell you a lot of reasons why they can't help you. Your response every time should be some version of, "Sure. But I need help with this. And I'm not going to stop until I get the support I need. So what do I do from here?" Then you blankly stare at them and refuse to leave until they get you at least to the next step. This will suck and I'm not sure how well it will work. If you do attempt or have attempted this method, please DM me or contact my Email with your experience. I want to know if this is even worth my student's time.
If you can not afford traditional testing, or if you do not feel your parents would support such testing, your best option is to wait until the day you turn 18 and then register for a telehealth company that specializes in ADHD. The one I use and recommend is HelloAhead.com. They're neat. They do not take traditional insurance, but their rates are much lower than most doctors. They are cheap enough that I feel an average 18-year old who wants help could find a way to afford it on his or her own. The downside with these sites is the waiting times can be really long. Took me like five months. Other such sites are popping up, and while I can't vouch for them, they all seem to offer a similar service.
Update: The lines aren't that long anymore! Monday was Elleway's 18th birthday. She sent me a screengrab of her upcoming Ahead appointment in early September. She told me she spent the entire day crying because all her friends were going off to great schools and that she was stuck at home. I've told Elleway that I plan to help her reapply to NYU this year. I doubt I will ever want to see another student succeed as much as I will with her.
submitted by CollegeWithMattie to ApplyingToCollege [link] [comments]

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

COVID-19's Economic Impact in Canada: a collection of stats on jobs losses, investment returns, consumer confidence, interest rates, housing, and future forecasts

Over the past few weeks, the COVID crisis has hurt the Canadian economy and the average Canadian's financial situation in more ways than one.
I tried to tally up the damage by going through the info that's been published thus far (by Stats Can, the Bank of Canada, the Parliamentary Budget Officer, news sites, etc.), and have put together some visualizations and commentary on the data.
In summary:
Jobs
Investments (2020 year-to-date returns)
Consumer Confidence
Interest Rates
Housing
Post-COVID Economic Forecasts
On April 9th, Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer released a “scenario analysis” report on the potential impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy.
 
These points are addressed in chart form at the link above. You can download a spreadsheet which contains all of the source data / charts.
There's also a summary of the emergency response initiatives announced by the federal government (CERB, GST credit, CCB one-time payment, the 75% wage subsidy, etc.), and thoughts about steps that Canadians can take today to improve their financial situation.
I'll continue to update the page as new economic stats roll-in, and as the government announces new initiatives.
I'd love to hear your thoughts about COVID's economic impact in Canada. Also, please feel free to share any other stats, articles, or reports that you think are relevant!
 
Edit: typo.
submitted by getToTheChopin to PersonalFinanceCanada [link] [comments]

Lines of Navigation | Monthly Portfolio Update - July 202

Our little systems have their day;
They have their day and cease to be
- Tennyson, In Memoriam A.H.H.
This is my forty-fourth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Total portfolio value: $1 800 119 (+$34 376 or 1.9%)
Asset allocation
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The portfolio has substantially increased this month, continuing the recovery in portfolio value since March.
The strong portfolio growth of over $34 000, or 1.9 per cent, returns the value of the portfolio close to that achieved at the end of February this year.
[Chart]
This month there was minimal movement in the value of Australian and global equity holdings, There was, however, a significant lift of around 6 per cent in the value of gold exchange traded fund units, as well as a rise in the value of Bitcoin holdings.
These movements have pushed the value of gold holdings to their highest level so far on the entire journey. Their total value has approximately doubled since the original major purchases across 2009 to 2015.
For most of the past year gold has functioned as a portfolio stabiliser, having a negative correlation to movements in Australian equities (of around -0.3 to -0.4). As low and negative bond rates spread across the world, however, the opportunity cost of holding gold is reduced, and its potential diversification benefits loom larger.
The fixed income holdings of the portfolio also continued to fall beneath the target allocation, making this question of what represents a defensive (or negatively correlated to equity) asset far from academic.
This steady fall is a function of the slow maturing of Ratesetter loans, which were largely made between 2015 and 2017. Ratesetter has recently advised of important changes to its market operation, and placed a fixed maximum cap on new loan rates. By replacing market set rates with maximum rates, the peer-to-peer lending platform appears to be shifting to more of a 'intermediated' role in which higher past returns (of around 8 to 9 per cent) will now no longer be possible.
[Chart]
The expanding value of gold and Bitcoin holdings since January last year have actually had the practical effect of driving new investments into equities, since effectively for each dollar of appreciation, for example, my target allocation to equities rises by seven dollars.
Consistent with this, investments this month have been in the Vanguard international shares exchange-traded fund (VGS) using Selfwealth. This has been directed to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares.
Fathoming out: franking credits and portfolio distributions
Earlier last month I released a summary of portfolio income over the past half year. This, like all before it, noted that the summary was prepared on a purely 'cash' basis, reflecting dividends actually paid into a bank account, and excluding consideration of franking credits.
Franking credits are credits for company tax paid at the company level, which can be passed to individual shareholders, reducing their personal tax liability. They are not cash, but for a personal investor with tax liabilities they can have equivalent value. This means that comparing equity returns to other investments without factoring these credits can produce a distorted picture of an investor's final after-tax return.
In past portfolio summaries I have noted an estimate for franking credits in footnotes, but updating the value for this recently resulted in a curiosity about the overall significance of this neglected element of my equity returns.
This neglect resulted from my perception earlier in the journey that they represented a marginal and abstract factor, which could effectively be assumed away for the sake of simplicity in reporting.
This is not a wholly unfair view, in the sense that income physically received and able to be spent is something definably different in kind than a notional 'pre-payment' credit for future tax costs. Yet, as the saying goes, because the prospect of personal tax is as certain as extinction from this world, in some senses a credit of this kind can be as valuable as a cash distribution.
Restoring the record: trends and drivers of franking credits
To collect a more accurate picture of the trends and drivers of franking credits I relied on a few sources - tax statements, records and the automatic franking credit estimates that the portfolio tracking site Sharesight generates.
The chart below sets out both the level and major different sources of franking credits received over the past eleven years.
[Chart]
From this chart some observations can be made.
The key reason for the rapid growth over the recent decade has been the increased investment holdings in Australian equities. As part of the deliberate rebalancing towards Australian shares across the past two years, these holdings have expanded.
The chart below sets out the total value of Australian shares held over the comparable period.
[Chart]
As an example, at the beginning of this record Australian equities valued at around $276 000 were held. Three years later, the holding were nearly three times larger.
The phase of consistently increasing the Australian equities holding to meet its allocated weighting is largely complete. This means that the period of rapid growth seen in the past few years is unlikely to repeat. Rather, growth will revert to be in proportion to total portfolio growth.
Close to cross-over: the credit card records
One of the most powerful initial motivators to reach financial independence was the concept of the 'cross over' point in Vicki Robins and Joe Dominguez's Your Money or Your Life. This was the point at which monthly expenses are exceeded by investment income.
One of the metrics I have traced is this 'cross-over' point in relation to recorded credit card expenses. And this point is now close indeed.
Expenditures on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month. The three year rolling average of monthly credit card spending remains at its lowest point over the period of the journey. Distributions on the same basis now meet over 99 per cent of card expenses - with the gap now the equivalent of less than $50 per month.
[Chart]
The period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent form of financial independence has continued.
The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the the extent to which to which portfolio distributions (red) cover estimated total expenses (green), measured month to month.
[Chart]
An alternative way to view the same data is to examine the degree to which total expenses (i.e. fixed payments not made on credit card added to monthly credit card expenses) are met by distributions received.
An updated version of this is seen in the chart below.
[Chart]
Interestingly, on a trend basis, this currently identifies a 'crossing over' point of trend distributions fully meeting total expenditure from around November 2019. This is not conclusive, however, as the trend curve is sensitive to the unusual COVID-19 related observations of the first half of this year, and could easily shift further downward if normal expense patterns resume.
One issue this analysis raises is what to do with the 'credit card purchases' measure reported below. This measure is designed to provide a stylised benchmark of how close the current portfolio is to a target of generating the income required to meet an annual average credit card expenditure of $71 000.
The problem with this is that continued falling credit card spending means that average credit card spending is lower than that benchmark for all time horizons - measured as three and four year averages, or in fact taken as a whole since 2013. So the set benchmark may, if anything, be understating actual progress compared the graphs and data above by not reflecting changing spending levels.
In the past I have addressed this trend by reducing the benchmark. Over coming months, or perhaps at the end of the year, I will need to revisit both the meaning, and method, of setting this measure.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 82.6% 111.5%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 100.7% 136.0%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 80.7% 109.0%
Summary
One of the most challenging aspects of closing in on a fixed numerical target for financial independence with risk assets still in place is that the updrafts and downdrafts of market movements can push the goal further away, or surprisingly close.
There have been long period of the journey where the total value of portfolio has barely grown, despite regular investments being made. As an example, the portfolio ended 2018 lower than it started the year. The past six months have been another such period. This can create a sense of treading water.
Yet amidst the economic devastation affecting real lives and businesses, this is an extremely fortunate position to be in. Australia and the globe are set to experience an economic contraction far more severe than the Global Financial Crisis, with a lesser capacity than previously for interest rates to cushion the impact. Despite similar measures being adopted by governments to address the downturn, it is not clear whether these are fit for purpose.
Asset allocation in this environment - of being almost suspended between two realities - is a difficult problem. The history of markets can tell us that just when assets seem most 'broken', they can produce outsized returns. Yet the problem remains that far from being surrounded by broken markets, the proliferation appears to be in bubble-like conditions.
This recent podcast discussion with the founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer provided a useful historical context to current financial conditions this month. One of the themes of the conversation was 'thinking the unthinkable', such as a return of inflation. Similar, this Hoover Institute video discussion, with a 'Back from the future' premise, provides some entertaining, informed and insightful views on the surprising and contingent nature of what we know to be true.
Some of our little systems may well have had their day, but what could replace them remains obscured to any observer.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

Miners left to mine 2.5 million BTC

At the moment, miners have mined about 18.5 million bitcoins, which is more than 86% of the maximum emission level.
There are 2.5 million coins left to mine, and half of them will be mined in the next four years, says an analyst at ChartsBTC. The total number of bitcoins is limited to 21 million coins. The last of them, according to the idea of the creator of the cryptocurrency Satoshi Nakamoto, will be found by 2140.
Once every four years, the reward for mining a block is halved, which slows down the issue of new bitcoins. Since the network was established in 2009, there have been three halves. The latter happened in May of this year, as a result of which the block reward decreased from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. Miners left to mine 2.5 million BTC.
submitted by bestchange_pr to bestchange [link] [comments]

MCS | The Record High Gold Price! What's going to happen to the price of Bitcoin, the digital gold?

MCS | The Record High Gold Price! What's going to happen to the price of Bitcoin, the digital gold?

\This post has been written by Hedgehog, an MCS influencer and one of Korea's famous cryptocurrency key opinion leaders.*

https://preview.redd.it/mq4voa301cf51.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c92a18bcb75f2f10e8dee1e0ba27d121fdc8368

#Be_a_Trader!

Greetings from MCS, the derivatives trading platform where traders ALWAYS come first.

https://preview.redd.it/uaryqg421cf51.png?width=1302&format=png&auto=webp&s=049a3413ff1392c1f579e84e9a14cac76959e12c
For the first time in history, the world gold price has topped $2,000 an ounce. Quantitative easing in major countries has brought astronomical amounts into the financial markets. In addition, Nasdaq is also setting a new high in anticipation of further economic stimulus agreements in the US this week.
Financial experts cite the followings for the main causes of the recent gold rally.
👉 First, experts analyze this intensification of the gold rally was caused by the stuttered US dollar rebound and the lowered US Treasury yield. In particular, as the US government's discussion on further economic stimulus measures to alleviate the global economic damage caused by COVID-19 from Wuhan, China is expected to come to an agreement this week, many speculate that this will lead to a drop in dollar value. Although the White House, Republicans, and Democrats have yet to narrow their views on additional stimulus measures prolonging the negotiation, it is very likely that the release of more dollars in the market, in the sense that everyone agrees on the need for additional stimulus, will relatively increase the value of gold.
👉 Second, some say that “the central banks in many countries will continue to buy gold to promote gold prices” referring to cases where central banks' buying of gold increased their gold prices during the 2009 global financial crisis.

"How high will the gold price go❓ "
Most experts believe that the gold price is still far from its limit. Especially, the Goldman Sachs Group is looking at $2,300 an ounce, Bank of America from $2,500 an ounce to up to $3,000 an ounce, and RBC Capital Market $3,000 an ounce.

https://preview.redd.it/vdk9z7251cf51.png?width=1308&format=png&auto=webp&s=057fc3749ebb69d881d5c0f1dbb35e8d075c7b89
The price of Bitcoin, also known as a safe digital asset, also remains in the $11,100 to $11,300 range ever since it recently broke the highest point of $12,000.

https://preview.redd.it/98v29w551cf51.png?width=2272&format=png&auto=webp&s=50b3957a0cffaa121d49c38e083223780841a3a9
Bitcoin, the No. 1 market capitalization among cryptocurrencies, has a market capitalization of approximately 200 billion USD as of August 5, 2020. This is more than the global stock valuations of Intel and Coca-Cola.

https://preview.redd.it/z6cxe1y51cf51.png?width=2560&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e74da23155fd6a4b9fe2521c61cbf4bd8bd9b94
A cryptocurrency media outlet, CoinDesk recently said that "Bitcoin recently hit a market high of $11,480, but there was a sign of buyer (buying force) fatigue in the technology chart. If the price falls below $11,000, it could retreat back to, before resistance now support, $10,500 (the highest point in February). However, if Bitcoin continues to settle above $11,400 on the time chart, it is highly likely that the rally will go above the latest high beyond $12,000".
I believe now that the value of gold, a famous safe asset, is the highest ever as the U.S. government has tentatively agreed to invest an additional $1 trillion in economic stimulus, the Bitcoin is also preparing to its rally again. I also think that since it is the post-halving period with the good news waiting in line including the Ethereum 2.0, we have enough momentum to rally more than $20,000 by the end of the year.

💡 "Nothing is permanent in this wicked world - not even our troubles." - Charlie Chaplin
All financial assets, including Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency leader, cannot be bullish forever. In the long run, they can gradually rise by stepping up the lowest price point, but there are a lot of ups and downs along the way. MCS traders can enjoy a bull market while preparing for a bear market on the one hand.

https://preview.redd.it/864543571cf51.png?width=2560&format=png&auto=webp&s=5cc17316075758ca10523a6124204ca57351d737
On UPbit and Bithumb, the major cryptocurrency exchanges in Korea, one can profit in a bull market, but it is very difficult to realize profits in a bear market, nless you are a master of flipping,. As a result, many cryptocurrency traders will turn their attention to cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges in bear markets.
After a successful launch of the Bitcoin perpetual contract product, the trading market on MCS is vigorously moving. The perpetual contract, one of Bitcoin derivatives, can short sell (betting on price drop) in the bear market, making it easy to profit even if the full-fledged bear market starts. In addition, even in today's bull market, you can take long positions (betting on rising prices), and you can use leverage to amplify your investment beyond the assets managed you own, enabling very effective Bitcoin trading.
*If you use leverage, the risk is significantly higher, so please be cautious of the risk and trade safely.
I hope this post helped you to understand the pros and cons of Bitcoin perpetual contract better, and I really wish that you realize your financial freedom on MCS, a cryptocurrency derivatives trading platform!!
I am a Bitcoin margin trader, Hedgehog. Thank you for reading this post.

Traders ALWAYS come first on MCS.
Thank you.

MCS Website: https://mycoinstory.com/
MCS Official Twitter (EN): https://twitter.com/mycoinstory_mcs
MCS Official Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MyCoinStory.official
MCS Telegram Chat (EN): https://t.me/mycoinstory_EN
submitted by MyCoinStory to MyCoinStory [link] [comments]

Cryptomarket. Interim results of 2020 and forecasts.

Cryptomarket. Interim results of 2020 and forecasts
During the last seven months, the currency and cryptocurrency markets have gone through many changes.
From February to mid-July of 2020, investors were looking for safe investments, such as the benchmark of the US Treasury, the dollar, which experienced a historic drop in profitability to below 1% on March 3, 2020.
However, similar to the conditions during the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the dollar had still become the preferred currency for investors, which strengthened its role as the dominant global reserve currency.
Like all other asset classes, the cryptocurrency market first suffered a defeat. The reason for this is the fact that the coronavirus is primarily a liquidity crisis.
However, the economic crisis caused by the closure of businesses, which led to a drop in the value of all major assets in the traditional market, forced people to reconsider their attitude towards investing in cryptocurrencies.
For example, in June, the value of bitcoin increased from $6,800 to $9,800 since the beginning of the year. Note that not many classic assets can boast of such results especially during a pandemic.
The growth of exchange transactions in the cryptocurrency market
During the pandemic, there has also been a significant increase in interest in the cryptocurrency market.
The number of transactions in US dollars increased from February to July of 2020. The chart below shows the increase in transactions since mid-July of 2020.
The popularity of cryptocurrencies. How the business reacted
The business started introducing cryptocurrency into payments more actively. For example, in July, streaming service Twitch announced a 10% discount1 for subscribers who pay for subscriptions using cryptocurrency.
According to Bill Zielke1, Chief Marketing Officer at BitPay, a crypto payment processing system, “Twitch is the first major seller to launch this trend.” Note that Twitch is not the only gaming site and streaming service that offers cryptocurrency support.
“A recent study by Wipro found that 75% of CEOs now see blockchain as a strategic priority in 2020,” said Buck Flannigan, Vice President of Global Partners at Fluree2.
Cryptocurrencies in investments
The main advantage of cryptocurrency is its low correlation compared to traditional and alternative asset classes, which makes it an ideal portfolio diversifier.
According to a recent study by the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, the allocation of 1% to 5% of investment in cryptocurrencies to a traditional portfolio not only creates additional profitability but also significantly increases the Sharpe ratio, which is the most famous measure for assessing the risk of return.
Compared to the stock and commodity markets, it is still the best performing asset class of 2020. Through the monetary policies of the central banks of the European Union, the United States, and Japan, one can see the vulnerability of the current monetary system, which is causing more and more people to lose confidence in central bank policies and money in its current format.
2020 forecasts and trends: from fiat to crypto
After going through the first half of the year, cryptocurrencies are gaining strength again.
Although it is too early to give predictions for the cryptocurrency market in statistical terms, it should be noted that many investors nowadays are considering cryptocurrencies as an alternative to traditional markets.
Despite the current volatility in the market, investing in cryptocurrencies seems reasonable. There are many electronic services for the exchange and storage of fiat money and cryptocurrency.
The trend towards the coexistence of two types of valuable assets and their active interaction is now very clearly visible. Services for converting fiat money into cryptocurrencies (and vice versa) are gaining more and more popularity.
By the way, it is the exchange services that occupy a significant share of this market.
Despite market fluctuations, the Cratos platform provides an individually customized service for each client. We use global security standards, and thanks to proprietary software, funds are always safe.
_____________________________________________________________________
Sources:
  1. NEWS: Live-Streaming Service Twitch Gives Subscribers 10% Discount if They Pay With Cryptocurrency — https://news.bitcoin.com/live-streaming-service-twitch-gives-subscribers-10-discount-if-they-pay-with-cryptocurrency/
  2. Fluree Launches Global Partner Program; Blockchain-Based Data Platform For Web3 Innovation Builds Ecosystem Powered By Partners — https://aithority.com/technology/blockchain/fluree-launches-global-partner-program-blockchain-based-data-platform-for-web3-innovation-builds-ecosystem-powered-by-partners/
submitted by Cratos_Official to u/Cratos_Official [link] [comments]

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin (as a) Store of Value - update

The earliest price I could find for 1 Bitcoin is $0.0009. This means that Bitcoin has appreciated against the USD by 859,555,455% since October 12, 2009, even after today's pullback.
Gold, in comparison (the world's premier SoV) has appreciated by a mere 60.32% over the exact same time period.
It's very important during extreme volatility over short time periods to retain overall perspective.
submitted by ThoroughlyFree to btc [link] [comments]

If you hodl or trade, you`re the biggest problem with the world of cryptocurrencies.

There`s 3 components to a market economy: Spending, Savings & Investments. We only have 2 and those are way off balance.
Spending: Payments. Drives Inclusion & Adoption. Represents the primary bridge to real world assets.
Saving: Store of Value, Essential driver for stability. The ideea that your holdings are safe over time and don`t depreciate.
Investments: Trading, drives value of the economy, corrects inflation.
State of the nation:
IF there`s any chance at adoption, don`t just HODL. Don`t just DayTrade. Spend what you have. Money needs to move.
The moment you start spending a portion of cryptocurrencies, that money moves. The entire supply chain benefits. Miners Mine, Exchangers Exchange, Businesses get paid, Taxes get taxed. The underlying value of your holdings grows as you tell more people how you paid your AliBaba supplier in Bitcoin and didn`t have any trouble with your EU based bank making a fuss over "why you`re sending money to Asia".
If the only thing you do with Crypto is to buy it, hold it or trade it, it has no impact on real life. It`s not inviting more people to use it. Demand doesn`t grow. the value chain remains closed and non-inclusive. And it`s against the basic principles of Blockchain. You, the person who only has 10 USD in Dogecoin or the Hodler who has 8 bitcoins since Satoshi was in diapers, you`re responsible for the value of your assets and growth of your community. If you don`t SPEND it, people around you have NO reason to adopt. And if they do adopt, they do it for the wrong reasons and simply add to the volatility.
Introduction:
I`ve been in this space since 2009, reading all I could get my hands on. Coming from a poorly banked background and still having frustrations due to the inability of making online purchases at the time, just coming out of a recession, Bitcoin`s vision struck a nerve with me. I`ve been an avid believer in blockchain ever since and at no point did I buy crypto to store value, hedge my bets, invest, digital gold or any of this. I went in because it was, and still is: the easiest way to send money across the world. Ethereum`s smart contracts bring this simple function to a new level, introducing conditions to be met for the transfer itself. Simple, open, transparent, inclusive. Period.
What we`ve become, as a community:
As a whole, this community went from a group of passionate people who wanted an alternative to banks, government and politics, people who wanted to deal directly with other people, to something weird I can`t describe as a whole, but more as personas. Here`s what I`m seeing:
  1. The "I wanna buy Pizza with Bitcoin" crowd. I`m one of them. We just wanted a simple alternative, we were okay with volatility because we always knew the more people use it, more stable it gets as an alternative currency. Conspiracy theorists, tech geeks, scientists, curious people fascinated by the endless possibilities of a global, open banking system, built by the people, for the people. Joined from the first 3-4 years of Bitcoin, many still join it.
  2. The Hodlers: Also coined as the true "Believers". They`re responsible for the initial traction, and would rather liquidate their house than to "sell off" their Bitcoins. They see Bitcoin and other currencies as a "store of value" and see not much difference between buying/storing Gold and Crypto. Joined after the first group and peacefully co-existed with everybody so far. Most dedicated miners came from this group/generation of adopters.
  3. The Traders: People coming from the finance world. They either did Hedgefunds, Forex, VC. Smart opportunists that saw the first 2 groups, saw the potential value of the system as something to be gained from (nothing wrong with this) and heavily capitalize on it. These were the first guys to look at crypto as financial instruments and started fighting the compliance game. This is also where market manipulation started.
  4. The "Tokenize the world" generation. Driven by technology on one side, by the ICO madness on the other side, this opportunistic group wanted to create a token (and respective ICOs) for everything they could think of. Huge similarities between how everything needed a website in the 2000`s, everything needed an app in 2010, everything needed a coin/token started around 2016. Dogecoin is the perfect example of a joke that got way out of proportion, while the original ideea was to make fun of this particular group. Oh well, this group still garners a lot of traction/interest. This group is why we have 3000 shitcoins and who knows how many that never saw the light of day.
  5. The Consultants, Gurus, Ninjas. The "know it all`s". They`re all about the TREND, not about the substance. In the 90`s we had the "internet consultants" who were selling strategies for people to get online. Later the same people were selling strategies to get website traffic. Later, it was about the apps or about the cloud. Right now, it`s about blockchain, token economics, go to market, liquidity, or investing. Some are super smart, most are useless. The only thing that really bothers me is that consultants take no ownership in the success or failure of what they`re selling. As long as you cover their fees, they don`t care if their advice works or not and usually blame you for failing. These are the "market makers" of today, the youtube/facebook/twitteinstagram investment gurus who look at charts for 4 hours and make predictions without really having any skin in the game. Here`s what I never got my head around, if you know how to make a market for a coin, or really know how to invest in crypto.... WHY would you charge me 20k when you can make millions for yourself in less time than that? I guess it holds true: those that can, DO, those that can`t, Teach.
This brings us to the state of the market today.
Proposed solution:
Don`t wait for your government to regulate, don`t wait for banks or institutional investors to kick in, don`t wait for the media frenzy. Just do your part: spend, save and invest your crypto just as you would your USD/Euro/Yen/etc. If you`re a freelancer, accept crypto payments. if you run a business, accept crypto payments. If you have crypto, make crypto payments. This is the main reason we have crypto today and it`s exactly what we don`t use it for. Go back to basics and let`s see how influenced by "market volatility" or "market manipulation" or "media bias" the price will get.
Disclosure: Yes, trying to solve the adoption issue has led me to build a platform for e-commerce that also solves crypto-to-fiat payments for more than 2000 tokens. We walk the walk, not talk the talk.
I`d love to hear if you guys agree or disagree, and most importantly, Why?
C:\>
P.S. I love you
submitted by chrisorasanusdk to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Don't sell your XLM

Don't sell your XLM
The coronavirus epidemic is on everyone’s mind right now — together with the losses in the crypto market. But even though the situation isn’t looking good right now, we are pretty certain that the crisis in the crypto market will pass. The price of XLM will grow again, so don’t sell your coins!
Do you remember what happened in the crypto market when the virus outbreak started in China? Bitcoin price skyrocketed to $10,000. People said that the virus is good for Bitcoin. The idea was that investors would sell their stocks and buy Bitcoin to protect their wealth.
Fast-forward a couple of months, and we’re living in a different world. In the past couple of weeks, Bitcoin lost half of its value. Sure, it happened before, but never so fast and never by so much is USD equivalent. With over $4000 off the price in a week, billions of dollars were wiped out. And it’s not just a big sell-off — some say that institutional investors are offloading their BTC in panic.
Stellar followed suit, unfortunately. The chart has been in the red for days. But does this mean you should sell? No. Here are 3 reasons why the price of Stellar will rise again, and quite soon.
1) Fundamentally crypto isn’t really tied to real-world assets. Analysts proved this using data for the past 10 years, since the era of crypto began. There is no long-term correlation between the price of BTC and other digital currencies and the price of oil. Stocks, gold and so on. What we are seeing now is simply panic, human emotions.
XLM and other coins can react to events in the world for a short while, but they don’t follow the same trends, even in the mid-term. When Bitcoin halving comes in May, it will be more important than the virus.
2) China is reopening for business. As you know, most of global crypto mining is concentrated in China. Of course, Stellar isn’t mined, but it’s sensitive to the market as a whole, and to the price of Bitcoin. And Bitcoin is mined — mostly in China. A couple of months ago we were worried that Chinese mining farms would close, that ASIC chip manufacturers would close etc. But now the epidemic in China is over, companies are reopening, people are starting to go to work. This means that the crypto mining industry is also safe.
3) There will be a boom once the outbreak is over. After each huge crisis, there is explosive growth. It happened after the swine flu in 2009, and it will likely happen this time. Western countries are taking very drastic measures to contain the virus, and these measures are working. So don’t believe people who say that everyone is going to day. The emergency might last several months, but when it’s over, the crypto market will explode in a good way. Stellar has a particularly strong potential for growth, because it was quite cheap even before the epidemic.
What’s the bottom line? Don’t sell your XLM. Keep them in our XLMwallet and simply wait.
Remember that XLMwallet is the best place to store your Stellar, because you can:
- Send XLM to email addresses;
- Launch your own assets and ICOs;
- Easily merge Stellar accounts;
- Open new accounts right inside the wallet;
- Get balance updates on any device;
- Manage multiple accounts…
…and more!
Next time we’ll remind you about the advantages of the wallet in more detail. For now, stay safe, don’t panic and hold on to your crypto!

https://xlmwallet.co/
submitted by Stellar__wallet to XLM_wallet [link] [comments]

PHP Script Casino Management System Online Casino Full Feature

[ Removed by reddit in response to a copyright notice. ]
submitted by Champion01 to u/Champion01 [link] [comments]

If you just hodl or trade, you`re the biggest problem with the world of cryptocurrencies.

TL;DR: There`s 3 components to a market economy: Spending, Savings & Investments. We only have 2 and those are way off balance.
Spending: Payments. Drives Inclusion & Adoption. Represents the primary bridge to real world assets.
Saving: Store of Value, Essential driver for stability. The ideea that your holdings are safe over time and don`t depreciate.
Investments: Trading, drives value of the economy, corrects inflation.
State of the nation:
IF there`s any chance at adoption, don`t just HODL. Don`t just DayTrade. Spend what you have. Money needs to move.
The moment you start spending a portion of cryptocurrencies, that money moves. The entire supply chain benefits. Miners Mine, Exchangers Exchange, Businesses get paid, Taxes get taxed. The underlying value of your holdings grows as you tell more people how you paid your AliBaba supplier in Bitcoin and didn`t have any trouble with your EU based bank making a fuss over "why you`re sending money to Asia".
If the only thing you do with Crypto is to buy it, hold it or trade it, it has no impact on real life. It`s not inviting more people to use it. Demand doesn`t grow. the value chain remains closed and non-inclusive. And it`s against the basic principles of Blockchain. You, the person who only has 10 USD in Dogecoin or the Hodler who has 8 bitcoins since Satoshi was in diapers, you`re responsible for the value of your assets and growth of your community. If you don`t SPEND it, people around you have NO reason to adopt. And if they do adopt, they do it for the wrong reasons and simply add to the volatility.
Introduction:
I`ve been in this space since 2009, reading all I could get my hands on. Coming from a poorly banked background and still having frustrations due to the inability of making online purchases at the time, just coming out of a recession, Bitcoin`s vision struck a nerve with me. I`ve been an avid believer in blockchain ever since and at no point did I buy crypto to store value, hedge my bets, invest, digital gold or any of this. I went in because it was, and still is: the easiest way to send money across the world. Ethereum`s smart contracts bring this simple function to a new level, introducing conditions to be met for the transfer itself. Simple, open, transparent, inclusive. Period.
What we`ve become, as a community:
As a whole, this community went from a group of passionate people who wanted an alternative to banks, government and politics, people who wanted to deal directly with other people, to something weird I can`t describe as a whole, but more as personas. Here`s what I`m seeing:
  1. The "I wanna buy Pizza with Bitcoin" crowd. I`m one of them. We just wanted a simple alternative, we were okay with volatility because we always knew the more people use it, more stable it gets as an alternative currency. Conspiracy theorists, tech geeks, scientists, curious people fascinated by the endless possibilities of a global, open banking system, built by the people, for the people. Joined from the first 3-4 years of Bitcoin, many still join it.
  2. The Hodlers: Also coined as the true "Believers". They`re responsible for the initial traction, and would rather liquidate their house than to "sell off" their Bitcoins. They see Bitcoin and other currencies as a "store of value" and see not much difference between buying/storing Gold and Crypto. Joined after the first group and peacefully co-existed with everybody so far. Most dedicated miners came from this group/generation of adopters.
  3. The Traders: People coming from the finance world. They either did Hedgefunds, Forex, VC. Smart opportunists that saw the first 2 groups, saw the potential value of the system as something to be gained from (nothing wrong with this) and heavily capitalize on it. These were the first guys to look at crypto as financial instruments and started fighting the compliance game. This is also where market manipulation started.
  4. The "Tokenize the world" generation. Driven by technology on one side, by the ICO madness on the other side, this opportunistic group wanted to create a token (and respective ICOs) for everything they could think of. Huge similarities between how everything needed a website in the 2000`s, everything needed an app in 2010, everything needed a coin/token started around 2016. Dogecoin is the perfect example of a joke that got way out of proportion, while the original ideea was to make fun of this particular group. Oh well, this group still garners a lot of traction/interest. This group is why we have 3000 secondary coins and who knows how many that never saw the light of day.
  5. The Consultants, Gurus, Ninjas. The "know it all`s". They`re all about the TREND, not about the substance. In the 90`s we had the "internet consultants" who were selling strategies for people to get online. Later the same people were selling strategies to get website traffic. Later, it was about the apps or about the cloud. Right now, it`s about blockchain, token economics, go to market, liquidity, or investing. Some are super smart, most are useless. The only thing that really bothers me is that consultants take no ownership in the success or failure of what they`re selling. As long as you cover their fees, they don`t care if their advice works or not and usually blame you for failing. These are the "market makers" of today, the youtube/facebook/twitteinstagram investment gurus who look at charts for 4 hours and make predictions without really having any skin in the game. Here`s what I never got my head around, if you know how to make a market for a coin, or really know how to invest in crypto.... WHY would you charge me 20k when you can make millions for yourself in less time than that? I guess it holds true: those that can, DO, those that can`t, Teach.
This brings us to the state of the market today.
Proposed solution:
Don`t wait for your government to regulate, don`t wait for banks or institutional investors to kick in, don`t wait for the media frenzy. Just do your part: spend, save and invest your crypto just as you would your USD/Euro/Yen/etc. If you`re a freelancer, accept crypto payments. if you run a business, accept crypto payments. If you have crypto, make crypto payments. This is the main reason we have crypto today and it`s exactly what we don`t use it for. Go back to basics and let`s see how influenced by "market volatility" or "market manipulation" or "media bias" the price will get.
Disclosure: Yes, trying to solve the adoption issue has led me to build a platform for e-commerce that also solves crypto-to-fiat payments for more than 2000 tokens. We walk the walk, not talk the talk.
I`d love to hear if you guys agree or disagree, and most importantly, Why?
C:\>
P.S. I love you
submitted by chrisorasanusdk to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Bitcoin (BTC) Has Seen One Major Rally During Each Block Reward Era

Bitcoin (BTC) Has Seen One Major Rally During Each Block Reward Era

https://preview.redd.it/lf7p0zqyn5d21.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=09a9c48586f96f1dda44b4a1af2d69b8bf57aa4f
https://cryptoiq.co/bitcoin-btc-has-seen-one-major-rally-during-each-block-reward-era/
So far, there have been 3 block reward eras for Bitcoin (BTC). The first era started with the genesis block in early January 2009, and there were 50 Bitcoin per block. The second era began at block 210,000 in late November 2012, and the block reward halved to 25 Bitcoin. The third era, which we are in as of this writing, began at block 420,000 in early July 2016. The block reward is now 12.5 Bitcoin.
When we overlay block reward halving dates on a logarithmic chart of Bitcoin’s price (below), it becomes apparent that there has been one major rally during each block reward era, at least so far. Further, roughly a year before the block halving that begins the era, the major rally of that era begins.

Source: @MoonOverlord on Twitter
As can be seen in the above chart the Bitcoin rally of late 2013 which brought Bitcoin over $1,000 for the first time occurred towards the middle of the 2nd era, and the rally to $20,000 in late 2017 occurred near the middle of the third era.
The fourth block reward era, when block rewards will be slashed to 6.25 Bitcoin, will start at block 630,000, projected to occur in May 2020. If the trend in the above chart continues, Bitcoin would bottom in late Spring or early Summer 2019 and then rally for one to two years to new all-time highs.
There may be some causation to this correlation. We expect that block halvings would help increase Bitcoin’s price since the rate of creation from mining is slashed. That means the Bitcoin inflation rate is halved. In the presence of increasing demand, the halving of the inflow of new Bitcoin would increase its price.
That said, there are many other factors that influence Bitcoin’s market cycles, making it perhaps overly simplistic to say that Bitcoin’s past two market cycles have been entirely due to the block halving. This correlation could be a coincidence.
It’s worth noting, however, that the rally of late 2013 ended as Mt. Gox collapsed, and the rally of 2017 ended as CME Bitcoin futures were launched and introduced massive short selling pressure.
Nonetheless, traders and investors pricing in the next block halving may apply upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price when May 2020 approaches. It will be interesting to see if history repeats itself and Bitcoin sees new all-time highs during the fourth block reward era.
submitted by turtlecane to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Safe Harbours and Storms | Monthly Portfolio Update - May 2019

Truth is confirmed by inspection and delay; falsehood by haste and uncertainty. – Tacitus
This is my thirtieth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals.
Portfolio goals
My objectives are to reach a portfolio of:
*$1 598 000 by 31 December 2020. This should produce a real income of about $67 000 (Objective #1) *$1 980 000 by 31 July 2023, to produce a passive income equivalent to $83 000 (Objective #2)
Both of these are based on an expected average real return of 4.19%, or a nominal return of 7.19%, and are expressed in 2018 dollars.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $745 158 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $43 119 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $77 915 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $105 821 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $80 408 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $246 012 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 937 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $13 376 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $8 178 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $85 424 Secured physical gold – $13 652 Ratesetter* (P2P lending) – $23 262 Bitcoin – $132 720 Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $15 130 Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $1 883 BrickX* (P2P rental real estate) – $4 629 Total value: $1 598 624 (+$57 037)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 40.9% (4.1% under) Global shares – 22.3% Emerging markets shares – 2.6% International small companies – 3.3% Total international shares – 28.2% (1.8% under) Total shares – 69.1% (5.9% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 5.5% International bonds – 10.5% Total bonds – 16.0% (1.0% over) Gold – 6.2% Bitcoin – 8.3% Gold and alternatives – 14.5% (4.5% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
The portfolio has experienced strong growth through the month, with a total increase of around $57 000.
This fifth month of continuous growth has seen an important event occur ahead of schedule. Portfolio Objective #1 - which is the 'median income' FIRE target that was the goal set at the start of this record in December 2016 - has been narrowly achieved.
[Chart]
My expectation at the beginning of this year was to reach this particular goal only at the end of 2020. This itself was shifted forward from the original goal of passing a slightly lower median income objective by July 2021. The net result of all of this is that a higher absolute portfolio objective has been reached more than two years early.
This achievement may be temporary, as it comes following the equal second longest run of monthly gains in this record. Just an average monthly fall could easily see the portfolio dip well below the objective again, and a prolonged downturn in share markets could easily lead to major declines which would take some time to recover from. At this stage, given that my final Objective #2 is still some distance away and further accumulation is planned, this prospect does not overly concern me.
The portfolio performance this month largely reflects the same drivers that have dominated performance since the journey began. These drivers have been new contributions and increases in Australian shares (through Betashares A200), particularly since the Federal election. In addition, there has been a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin. This led to a portfolio growth which was the sixth highest in the record to date.
[Chart]
Credit card spending has been significantly lower than average over the past month. It has been the lowest level in six years in fact. As the series below indicates, however, it is a volatile measure.
Once financial year 2018-19 figures on distributions are finalised early next month, it's likely the the red line of distributions, which currently is an estimate based on low December half year figures, will be revised up. This in turn could mean a return to distributions on average coming close to meeting credit card expenses.
Progress
Progress against the objectives, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 100.0% 137.3% Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 80.7% 110.8% Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 91.8% 126.0% Total expenses - $96 000pa 69.8% 95.8%
Summary
Progress over the last few months has been swift and surprising. Timelines set less than six months ago have been met, and the portfolio has entered into the 'between' phase of being above my minimum Objective #1, but some distance from my ultimate goal (Objective #2).
Part of the process of adapting to this phase is understanding its true nature - its permanence or otherwise, and looking through short-term movements to try to discern the underlying picture. In short, inspection and delay.
This what lies behind recent posts seeking to analyse the income potential of the portfolio, and longer term trends in distributions and expenses. Seeking the additional data point of what this portfolio delivers currently is the reason I am straining forward to see the size and shape of the end of June distributions.
The advice commonly offered in the financial independence community at this point is crystal clear. Pay less attention to the numbers, and start exploring and building the life you desire now. The advice is so universal, and so intuitively sensible that I do not ignore it. With Australian and global equity markets poised as they are, however, I feel a resisting force going too far down this path. This is mostly stemming from a suspicion that prior to the goal being reached there might be one or more unavoidable challenges to come.
This may be linked to an increased probability of Australian interest rate reductions, and even the entry by Australian monetary authorities into some form of quantitative easing. As inflation stalls, and housing markets decline, the macroeconomic conditions appear less predictable than at any time since 2009. Some of the global financial trends and developments that are of most concern are well discussed in the most recent Incrementum AG In Gold We Trust report, which has as its theme tracing declining trust across the global financial system.
While that outlook might suggest protective action, overall I am comfortable with the extent of my diversification across less-correlated assets. It should be remembered that I felt similar unease two years ago - and that indulging in market timing at that point would have had high opportunity costs.
In any case, more and more it is evident that the performance of the portfolio is not something that can be materially altered by one or two monthly investment decisions. Rather, it is a function of the interaction of unstable markets with the compound effect of hundreds of smaller individual investment contribution decisions taken over the past decade or so across a range of different market conditions.
Following on from my quick Bitcoin and gold correlation analysis last month, I was interested to see this 'portfolio optimisation' based analysis on the potential role of Bitcoin in a portfolio, using just seven years of historical data. Also, this What's Up Next podcast on finding the right time to retire is a fascinating discussion of the issue of knowing when it is time to put into action FIRE plans. Finally, Aussie HIFIRE has recently pulled together a post highlighting the different voices in the Australian FIRE blogging community for readers.
As winter takes hold, the portfolio is prepared for as yet undefined challenges and storms that may emerge, and I remain intensely curious at what the coming set of distributions will disclose about the distance I still have to travel. One port gained, the next leg of the journey beckons.
The post and graphs can be viewed here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

Thoughts from the crypto bear market

I've learned a lot over the past year. However, my biggest takeaway is that the average person does not have the mental fortitude to play the investing game. I think the largest reason for that is so many people are living above their means and are, therefore, living paycheck to paycheck. A major dip in the market makes people panic because they are over-invested and they know it. They aren't investing, they are gambling.
In the US we are currently $20 TRILLION in debt. That's not even the whole picture because our government doesn't accrue for its unfunded liabilities. Add those numbers in and we are rapidly approaching $200T! Recent statistics puts 80% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck and that around 5% of Americans are over 90 days behind on their auto loans. And if you're not an American reading this and laughing, the statistics aren't any better for most European countries. Something has to give eventually.
It's interesting crypto had this massive sell-off now. It may come back, it may not for a long long time. It appears that we are in consolidation period and the bottom may already be in. I don't know if crypto could ever be considered as a hedge against the traditional markets, but I do know this: if you've been around crypto since 2017 and you zoom out on these charts, it should look familiar and it doesn't look good.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-AMZN/
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-MSFT/
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-AAPL/
Equities have been in a bull market for 10 years now. Think about that for a minute. If you're a 32 yr old equities trader on wall street you were probably coming out of college in 2009 at the end of the last financial crisis (yeah the one that was ended prematurely due to "quantitative easing" i.e. manipulation by the fed). You've never traded in a true bear market environment. The next financial crisis will be brutal and long and people will lose their shirts. I don't know when, I don't know what the catalyst will be, but it's coming sooner than many realize.
So what does this have to do with crypto?
First, don't be overinvested. Take care of your personal finances first. Live within your means. You can accumulate great wealth from your paycheck if you don't always have to have the "best," newest everything. Pay off your debt first, save up, then invest.
Second, it does appear that crypto could be a natural hedge against traditional markets. Satoshi created Bitcoin out of the wreckage of the 2008 financial crisis. The next financial crisis will be crypto's biggest test. Don't be so quick to panic sell. We're already down ~80% give or take. There's a lot of room to move up and when equities start dropping investors will look to park their money in other financial instruments. Will crypto be one of those? I think for some the answer will be yes. If even a small portion of the money in equities moves to crypto, it could push the overall crypto market cap way past previous ATHs. I'm not counting on it, but at this point it would be silly to not recognize that as a real possibility.
Thirdly, diversify. The crypto market seems to be out-of-cycle with traditional markets. I know some people try to make the case that they are correlated; to a certain extent everything is, but I think there's a big enough difference to make some serious money here. When equities, crash, buy in. When crypto moons, don't get greedy and lock in some profit. If you're only in crypto, you're not diversified. Within the crypto market, do your research and buy into projects that will weather the storms of the market cycles...we saw several shitcoins bite the dust this year because they couldn't survive the bear market.
Finally, don't get too emotionally invested. Spend time with your loved ones. Don't watch the charts all day. You hear about these wall street bankers jumping out of windows; how sad is it that these people didn't have anything else to live for? They lost it all long before they "lost it all" in the market. Don't do that. Keep yourself grounded. Money doesn't bring happiness. It can absolutely enhance the happiness you already have, but you have it have first apart from the money.
submitted by 0661 to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Market Cycle: Headed Towards Point of Maximum Financial Opportunity

Author: CoinLive News Team Jun 18, 2018 at 12:47
(Click the link to visualize the article from the original source)
There are many venues one can venture when it comes to analyzing the state of affairs in a particular market. However, from a psychological perspective, it is human nature to see repetitive patterns play out over and over. In this article, we want to bring to the readers' attention the psychology behind a market cycle, how it tends to trick one's emotions, and what stage the crypto space might be at.

Understanding the Psychology of a Market Cycle

Credit goes to Karen Bennett, writer at cheatsheet.com, whose chart (below) on the psychology of a market cycle has become an absolute classic to explain the different emotional phases of any volatile market. The chart illustrates the type of feelings and sentiment traders and investors alike experience as the price fluctuates. These inevitable human emotions, coupled with market fundamentals, help to explain the price dynamics and what we should expect based on the type of emotional phase we project to be in.
In this article, we will attempt to draw some parallels between the chart of Bitcoin and the psychological cycles investors go through as described by Karen Bennett. Let's, first of all, explore the chart below and extract a few insights out of it. It is of cardinal importance to always be reminded that markets go through periods of expansion and contraction, which describes the times where the market alternates between trending in a defined direction and moving sideways. This phenomenon can be extrapolated to multiple facets of our lives (thermal, matter, solid, liquids...).
It is during the periods of most contraction that the majority of the market crowd will leave by selling their holding (weak-handed players) to those that are interested in buying to accumulate at what is perceived as attractive prices. The contraction of the market partly occurs due to the compressive effect of those strong-handed players absorbing selling orders.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1000/content_psychology_cycles.png)

Applying Market Cycle Psychology to Bitcoin & Market Cap

By comparing the psychology of market moves and its emotions to the rollercoaster seen in Bitcoin ever since its peak from its irrationally exuberant rally from Dec-Jan, we have taken the initiative to draw what we believe could be some common parallels that may provide some extra insights about the potential market phase we might be at, as perceived by market participants. In our opinion, a period of depression, which leads up to disbelief might be the most accurate terrain we find ourselves at this moment in time, especially after the harsh sell-off resumption seen ever since mid-May.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1003/content_btc01.png)
We can best define this period as the one that sees a consistent loss of hope, with investors no longer expecting a significant upward correction in the near future that may get them out of the deep hole they find themselves in. A significant portion of market participants give up on the idea that their capital has been wisely invested. We seem to have entered a phase where investors aim to save whatever funds left in desperation even if they realize that cutting the losses for whatever capital is left will still represent a major setback.
This phase leads to a potential paradigm shift in their belief about the underlying fundamentals that they first considered so disruptive, or they simply come to the realization that the only reason they invested was out of an adrenaline-led hype vs a proper understanding of the technology and its revolutionary consequences to advance society as we know it. This loss in the overall interest keeps prices at depressed levels, which tends to coincide, at times, with the lowest point in the current cycle.
Stable prices in a compressed range tend to follow, in what might be an arduous and torturous stage lasting quite some time before a new bullish trend re-emerges. Note how the ATR has been consistently compressing since the peak, which suggests we are gradually heading towards the compression phase and point of maximum financial opportunity.

Keep in Mind Return to the 'Mean'

Another critical component to understand is the term "return to the mean". Given that the price of Bitcoin is now way below the most widely followed moving averages (5, 100, 200-Daily Moving Average), one could apply the usefulness of drawing trending lines to estimate where the fair value or mean may be located. Note, different interpretations (lines drawn) should be considered.
By connecting the most number of highs /lows from various price sequences, we come up with at least 3 different trendlines that serve as an estimate to calculate where the market may perceive the mean or fair value of Bitcoin. No one can really tell whether the first green box is the one the market is paying most attention to (follow volumes for valuable tips). However, this exercise helps us determine, from a market cycle/mean reversion standpoint, that the range between $6.5k and $3k appears to be an area where a period of accumulation (perception of value) will most likely occur.
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1005/content_btc02.png)
Mean reversion is extremely critical. Over a short span, the markets can behave in such an erratic manner, and anything can happen, however, when we scan the market conditions as part of an extended period of time, which may go from months to years - that's when statistics and certain patterns tend to more accurately play out, with 2 plus 2 more often than not equal 4. Performance that is well above average eventually reverts back to an equilibrium point as it no longer can defy gravity, while performance that is well below average has a tendency to improve.
At CoinLive we are always open for interpretations that can be logically explained and have a mathematical backing. We have been long endorsing the approach taken by the user of BitcoinTalk that goes by the name Trolololo and its logarithmic non-linear mean regression chart. According to the chart below, we might be closer to the upper edge of the $6.5k-$3k range, although as usual, a caveat applies. In the past, the price of Bitcoin has had a tendency to spend significant periods of time in an undervalued area below the mean reversion (red line).
![](https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/1006/content_btc03.png)
The formula%2Fweeks)+-+8.81809) that utilizes can also be applied to the total crypto market capitalization (currently at $270b), which can be found below:
![103.23720 log((weeks since Friday, January 9, 2009/week) - 8.81809)](http://www4d.wolframalpha.com/Calculate/MSP/MSP131ei58i8420g3f1eh00005h2a3221h21b15i6?MSPStoreType=image/gif&s=37) = ![1.78×1011](http://www4d.wolframalpha.com/Calculate/MSP/MSP171ei58i8420g3f1eh00002icb526a8ff605ie?MSPStoreType=image/gif&s=37)
Twitter user @TommyWorldPower, a crypto influencer and Creator of @energicrypto, notes: "My observations of the market is that current fair value of market: $175B. Current growth rate ~150%/yr (decaying at 20%/yr, so next year would be ~120% growth). Thus, though we are overvalued now, we would reach fair market value in about 8 months at current valuation. I'm hodling."

What Can We Learn from the Analysis?

Some of the main takeaways from this analysis include:
submitted by Ivo333 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

BITCOIN price evolution REPLAY (2011-2019) Bitcoin Price History Timeline What's the Best Bitcoin Chart? And what it can tell us. Bitcoin Price History 2009 to 2018 Bitcoin and Crypto Over the Years - Historical Price Perspectives

This is a Bitcoin price and history chart. Find historical and current Bitcoin prices in this VERY accurate chart (updated every minute). ... Days Since All Time High . ... How Much was 1 Bitcoin Worth in 2009? Bitcoin was not traded on any exchanges in 2009. Its first recorded price was in 2010. Technically, Bitcoin was worth $0 in 2009 during ... The highest price for bitcoin since it was launched in 2009 was $19,497 in December 2017. After that spike, the price trended down to $6,603 in April 2018. Bitcoin's price is gradually rebounding, buoyed by increased demand for the digital currency in China caused by the weakening yuan : digital currency, like gold , is a refuge for investors ... Bitcoin Price Chart Since 2009 Tuesday, 22 September 2020. Bitcoin price prediction chart 2009 bitcoin price history infographics of 1 simple bitcoin price history chart bitcoin price history chart since 2009 this man bought 27 of bitcoins in 2009 balances bitcoin price. Buy Bitcoin. Purchase Bitcoin using a credit card or with your linked bank account via an online exchange. Learn More. Use Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Send real money quickly to anywhere in the world, basically for free. Learn More. Play Games with Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Bitcoin Games is a provably fair gaming site. ... Bitcoin history for 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019. Bitcoin price chart since 2009 to 2019. The historical data and rates of BTC ...

[index] [7847] [16440] [19232] [19818] [4135] [23137] [21534] [29560] [4981] [25325]

BITCOIN price evolution REPLAY (2011-2019)

Bitcoin history – Price 2009 to 2018, Charts, Data – Bitcoin View Bitcoin's price since its inception in 2009 and all the way up to today. Complete with historical events and how they affected ... Bitcoin Difficulty historical chart ... Bitcoin’s Mining Difficulty Just Posted Its Biggest Increase Since 2018 ... Mark Zuckerberg in 2009: Facebook privacy is central - BBC News ... Bitcoin/USD historic price data from 2012 to 2017 on Bitstamp. Charted with tradingview. In 2009, 10,000 Bitcoins were auctioned for $50 but no buyer was found at that time.In March 2010, first cryptocurrency exchange opened & one bitcoin was priced $0.003. Bitcoin from 2009 to 2018 This is a replay of the Bitcoin price between 2011 and 2019. -Bitcoin was created 2009 -Bitcoin price reaches $0.1 for the first time 10/10/2010 -Bitcoin price reaches $1 for the first time 2/9 ...

#